| Gold, silver halt weekly decline as dollar index falls; where will bullion prices go this week? | Gold, silver halt weekly decline as dollar index falls; where will bullion prices go this week?

By Tapan Patel

Commodity prices traded higher during the week passed by with bullion prices reported first weekly gain after losing for two weeks. Crude oil prices pared weekly losses on geopolitical tensions on Iran while base metals gained on demand growth optimism. 

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Gold prices traded higher with spot gold prices at COMEX ended half a percent up to $1824 per ounce giving a pause to weekly decline. Gold prices at MCX ended 0.51% higher at Rs. 47318 per 10 grams for the week in line with global peers despite of rupee appreciation. The spot rupee ended 0.24% higher against the dollar for the week. Gold ETF holdings continued to witness outflows as holdings at SPDR Gold Shares fell to 1142 tonnes during the week from previous week’s 1156 tonnes. The CFTC data showed that money managers increased net long positions by 10 lots in last week on stimulus hopes.

Silver prices traded higher with spot silver prices at COMEX rallied by more than 1.63% to $27.36 per ounce for the week. MCX Silver March futures rose by 0.55% to Rs. 69117 per KG. The CFTC data showed that money managers cut net long positions by 927 lots in last week. 

Bullion prices witnessed recovery from 10-week lows with a decline in dollar index which increased investors’ appetite for the precious metals. The dollar index fell by 0.62% for the week after US inflation data failed to cheer markets. Bullion prices recovered on US stimulus hopes with $1400 relief checks from Biden administration. However, upside remained capped in precious metals prices with dollar recovery in last trading day of the week.

We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down for short term with COMEX spot gold having resistance near $1860 per ounce and support at $1760 per ounce. At MCX, Gold April prices have near term resistance at Rs. 47800 per 10 grams and support at Rs. 46600 per 10 gram. COMEX silver spot has near term resistance at $28.50/$30 per ounce with support at $25.80 per ounce. MCX Silver March has important resistance at Rs. 72600 per KG and support at Rs. 67000 per KG.

(Tapan Patel is a Senior Analyst (Commodities) at HDFC securities. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.) 

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