GOLD FORECAST: JACKSON HOLE TO SPUR XAU/USD PRICE VOLATILITY
Precious metals have staged impressive rallies over recent trading sessions. Gold and silver trade about 8% higher off their respective flash crash lows notched earlier this month. This seems largely driven by a softer US Dollar and greater likelihood that the Fed delays its taper timeline announcement.
XAU/USD price action might struggle to extend its advance in the short-term, however, as markets seek more clarity on when FOMC officials might decide to start tapering asset purchases. Such clarity stands to be provided by Fed Chair Powell and his scheduled speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium this Friday, 27 August at 14:00 GMT.
XAU/USD – GOLD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (24 MARCH TO 24 AUGUST 2021)
Nearside technical resistance has potential to keep gold bulls at bay as well. Gold price action might face downward pressure from its descending trendline highlighted on the chart above. Not to mention, XAU/USD is also challenging the underbelly of its 100-day simple moving average. The 100-day simple moving average has served as a proverbial ‘line in the sand’ for gold with momentum looking bullish above this technical indicator and bearish below it.
As such, reclaiming the 100-day simple moving average, combined with confirmation of a breakout above resistance at the $1,830-price level, would likely serve as a very constructive development for the gold bull thesis. That may bring all-time highs back into focus, though the psychological $1,900-handle does stand out as a noteworthy obstacle with potential to stymie rallies. From a fundamental perspective, bullish scenarios could be catalyzed by FOMC officials sticking to a cautious script and not giving a taper timeline announcement at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
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