Gold, US 10-year yields, US Retail Sales and Industrial Production – Talking Points
Gold prices continued to firm slightly overnight as US 10-year Treasury yields drifted lower as the S&P 500 hit another record high. When returns on US fixed-income assets deteriorate, the anti-fiat yellow metal can benefit at times. The bigger picture for gold shows this move to be a consolidation in the wider range after rejecting the low at 1,675 for the third time this year last week.
Over the remaining 24 hours, we have a slew of potential market moving data and Fedspeak. It starts with US retail sales and industrial production before Fed Chair Jerome Powell hosts an online town hall conversation with teachers and students from across the nation. It is not known if Powell will make any comments toward Fed tapering in these conversations. Then on Wednesday, the market will be looking closely at the language in the FOMC minutes release for guidance on Fed tapering plans.
Illustrated in the daily gold chart below, we have the setup for the consolidation phase that the market is currently in, with the bounce off the low near 1,675. Despite this recovery, gold is yet to break significant resistance levels as it approaches several topside levels of significance with the 100 and 200 day simple moving averages coming in at 1,806 and 1,812 respectively. Additionally, the most recent previous high comes in at 1,834, providing further wood to chop for gold bulls.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
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